For those who have been under a rock, On Sunday afternoon Holland will play Spain in the 2010 Fifa World Cup Final in South Africa. This marks the first time the final will be played in Africa and the first time that Spain have gotten beyond the quarter final (yes, it's true).
So what we all want to know is, who's going to win? It's an important question. Spain have been waiting 70 years to even have a chance like this, and Holland has been to three finals and never won. The question, who wants it more?
I think I've worked out who's going to win, and I don't think many of you are going to like it. But here goes: Spain 1-0 Holland.
Here's the thing, the Final is characteristically low scoring. And that makes sense. Everyone's nervous out of their damn minds, it's no wonder that chances are so rare. But I think Spain will be able to pull this out for a couple of reasons.
1. Midfield. The war is going to be won and lost in this game in the midfield. You've got Dutch enforcers Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong trying to get the ball up field to Sneijder. On the other side, you've got Sergio Busquets, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Andres Iniesta, and Pedro passing like demons and trying to snipe Villa on a diagonal run. The key man here is De Jong. He's got to avoid a yellow card while still kicking the crap out of Xavi, which isn't easy.
I'd say Holland's best chance is Sneijder's passing ability from the midfield out to Robben and Kuyt. Their best chance is to get Robben cutting in from the left or Kuyt laying a ball in to Robin Van Persie. But I think Spain's central defense got a pretty stern talking to, as they were playing like maniacs in the game today. I honestly think Puyol is going to die before he lets a ball get by him.
2. Psychological battle. Spain come into this final with absolutely no expectations. They've never been here before. And they could be the favorite, but Holland beat Brazil for God's sake. It's not like I'm calling a 3-0 route here, which will not happen I assure you.
But I think the key here is the mental state of Holland's players. They come into this game knowing the mournful history of their side in the final. They've got aging stars like Robben, Kuyt, Van Brockhorst, and Van Bommel who know that this is probably their last shot. They've got guys like Van Persie who are frustrated out of their minds with their inability to find a scoring chance. They've got one of the largest travelling fan bases in South Africa. I think all of the weight of expectation is on Holland, and I'm not sure they're ready to cope with that.
Not only that, but there has been simmering discord amongst the Dutch side. Like when Van Persie was whining after being taken out and saying that Sneijder should have been taken out, if anyone. Or when Van der Vaart came over and told Robben that he was going to take the corner, and Robben sort of grimaced and walked away. Seconds later, Van der Vaart missed absolutely everyone. I think that if this team gets down early (which they more than likely won't) the tensions may rise considerably.
3. Set pieces. Xavi. That's really all I have to say, but I'll elaborate. As today's game has shown us, as well as this entire tournament has shown us, set pieces are key in these massive games. And I think Spain have the best chance of converting one. Xavi is immaculate, and he never flinches in big game situations. Don't go get a beer when Spain has a corner, that's all I'm saying.
4. Substitutions. Substitutes are going to be key in this game. Particularly for Holland. Eljero Elia, if he comes in, could be capable of unlocking the Spanish defense. Klaas Jan Huntelaar, despite his young age, is a fearless striker and I think may deserve the start over a frankly pathetic Van Persie. Rafael Van der Vaart, as much as I hate him, is very capable at pushing the tempo and catching defenses off guard.
On the other side, Fernando Torres can come in and perhaps redeem himself. Maybe he scores the only goal in the Final as he did in the Euro 2008 victory over Germany. Jesus Navas can come in and do his little whirling durvish thing all over everybody's face. Cesc Fabregas, if he's not too hurt, can come in and just be better than Busquets in every facet of the game.
The question is, which coach will take more chances? Bert Van Marwuyk, the passionate, eloquent fan boy? Or Vicente Del Bosque, the stern, unforgiving Champions League stalwart. Frankly, I think both men are equally ballsy in their selections.
5. Wildcard. Weird shit happens in the World Cup Finals. The Hand of God, Lampard's "Goal that Wasn't" (As I've coined it), and Zidane's infamous headbutt. I think in this final we need to watch out for stuff like that. Maybe Xabi Alonso upper 90s one from half field, as he has been threatening to do all tournament. Maybe Villa scores a goal with his ass off a deflected shot, who knows.
I also think, as the projected scoreline shows, that Villa will hold on my prediction and go on to win the Golden Boot, making him the hottest player in the world just as he enters Barcelona.
These are my keys to Spain's first World Cup win. Want to defend the Oranje? Let's discuss. (Sidenote I'm for Holland).
Detailed, insightful, and well-researched; a William Ward piece if I ever read one.
ReplyDeleteSpain's offense has been somewhat lacking in potency. Though they maintain possession well and create quite a few chances, there ability to finish has been spotty. So far the only player on the team that seems able to score is Villa.
ReplyDeleteIts because of this inability to score goals that they will lose to Holland. (It should be Germany v. Holland in the final, but without Mueller the Germans didn't have a chance; they simply didn't play well.)
I agree that Spain has had a great deal of difficulty getting other players in scoring form. With Puyol's goal, that makes two players on the team other than him to score a goal. On Holland's side, Kuyt, Robben, Sneijder, Van Persie, and Huntelaar have all gotten at least one goal.
ReplyDeleteThere was one moment in the 83rd minute of the Spain Germany game that infuriated me, when Pedro was in the box and had a recently substitued Fernando Torres wide open in front of goal. Pedro couldn't find him, and thus passed up the opportunity to restore the form of quite possibly the best player in the world. So there have definitely been miscues.
However, I think you also have to take into account how Holland's attack has been playing. Literally every goal they scored on Tuesday was one that banged off the post, narrowly getting through. This was also the first time in the tournament that they were able to get more than 2 goals in one game. I would contend that Holland has also had difficulty finding the back of the net, and they also seem to lack patience in the final third, which is absolutely necessary when trying to work the ball past Spain's defense.
With that being said, I think Spain is going to dominate possession mercilessly and as a result will find a way through the Holland defense. On the other side of the ball, Holland will not be able to unlock the Spanish defense until the second half when fresh legs like Elia and Huntelaar will outpace Puyol, but even then they have to contend with Pique and Casillas.
Your point is very valid though, Spain's finishing has been suspect all tournament, so I suppose we'll have to see.
All of that is nice, but the fact is the Netherlands have scored a lot more goals in this WC than Spain and those goal weren't all scored by one person. The Netherlands is a team (like Uruguay) that just won't die. They haven't really played spectacular soccer or had any truly impressive games, but they've been solid throughout the whole tournament.
ReplyDeleteHolland 1 : 0 Spain
Won't be a high scoring game.
ReplyDeleteThose are valid points. Holland has been the definition of "solid." I think it's great that this final is so hard to call and there are so many that think it will go both ways, it should make for an intense and exciting game.
ReplyDeleteI also agree that it won't be high scoring. One thing that Andy Gray says in Fifa literally every time a game goes to halftime 0-0 that it will "take something special to seperate these two teams," and I think that's pretty spot-on with how this game is going to work out.