On Holland v. Brazil: Who will win

This is the most important match so far in the tournament. It is the belief of many, including myself, that the winner of this game will be very likely to win it all. But before we cut to the projected scoreline, let's go over what this game means to the tournament.

The two sides that are meeting here are two legends of football. On one side of the Atlantic, you have the magnificent Oranje known as simply the "Dutch Masters," and that name suits them, as they've invented their own style of play, total football, and they also sport one of the most impressive rosters of superstar players year in and year out. In one of the most traditional countries on earth, football runs through the people's veins.

On the other side of the Atlantic, you have the authors of the term "The Beautiful Game." Or at least, if they didn't coin it, someone coined it watching them play. Brazilians play, historically, with a calm, crafty, off-the-cuff style of play in which every players individual talents are utilized to their fullest potential while still preserving a great team element that propels them to victory over any side. And talent is never a problem in Brazil, as Andy Gray says in Fifa 10, Brazil literally have enough players "to field seven national teams." And that's just got to be true. Look at all of the players who weren't selected: Ronaldhino, Ronaldo, Alexandre Pato. Or even the ones who are some of the best in the world at what they do and can't start because some other great player is sitting in their spot, like Barcelona star Dani Alves who sits on the bench while Inter Milan phenom Maicon towers onfield.

So that's what these teams represent historically, but what about in this tournament?

Let's start with Holland. There has been some griping that Holland have been "boring" to watch because they aren't scoring enough. But let's look at the facts. Holland haven't lost a game since 2008. They were undefeated in qualifying and ran the table in their group. They've only conceded one goal in this tournament. This is a team that's absolutely on fire, and just because they aren't scoring four goals a match doesn't mean that they don't know how to win, because they obviously do.

Now for Brazil. Brazil have impressed massively in this tournament, as one would expect. But people have started asking questions, particularly with the injuries of key players like Felipe Melo and Elano. They also conceded a goal against North Korea in their opener, and some were a little nervous even as the final whistle blew in that match on a 2-1 win for the Brazilians. That said, they still ran the table in their group and pretty much handed Chile their asses in the first Knockout match.

These teams however are also remarkably similar. Both have been criticized for not being as creative as past sides, but are still doing as good as they could possibly do. Both are also key players in world football and came into this tournament as favorites to win it all.

This was a tough one to call, but I think I have decided who I think will win this one: Holland 3-2 Brazil.

I think Holland is going to win this one, but I imagine it will be very close and the Oranje may need 120 minutes to decide it. But I think Holland are going to win this game for a number of reasons:

1. Arjen Robben v. Michel Bastos. This match-up will decide the game. Robben is back and, as he shown with his miraculous goal against Slovakia, he's ready to do some damage in this tournament. With Robben back, the Dutch just look more lethal. When he gets on the ball and starts cutting in on that left foot, you can't help but think something big is about to happen for the Dutch. And I think the inexperienced Bastos, who has been playing quite well mind you, is going to have a problem with "Yellow-Shoes Man," as my girlfriend first called Robben before she knew his name.

2. Injuries on Brazil. Elano is an inspirational talisman of the Brazilian side of 2010. With him gone, a lot of air can go out of them. He's the guy who can pull them up by their boot-straps when they are down, he's the guy who can deliver perfectly weighted passes to Fabiano streaking down the middle. To make matters worse, his replacement Ramires won't be available because of a yellow-card suspension. I think that the Dutch holding midfielders with stars like Mark Van Bommel, Nigel De Jong, and Wesley Sneijder will be able to win the battle in the middle of the field, especially with a crippled Brazilian center.

Out wide, Brazil will have to cope without Felipe Melo, who in all honesty wasn't a particularly marvelous player in the first place, but he was a great passer of the ball and he represented the majority of Brazil's pace away from the ball getting behind defenders. I would expect Dunga to put in one of the younger guys with comparable skill to Melo, like Nilmar or someone like that, but we'll have to see.

3. Juan is kind of an idiot. Juan, the center defender of Brazil, has scored a goal in this tournament, but he's also been playing like a bit of an idiot. His tendency to ball-watch is what gave Drogba his headed goal in the Ivory Coast match, and his other tendency to be woefully out of position is what gave North Korea their gift of a goal in the Brazilian opener. Basically Brazil's central defence is characterized by Lucio cleaning up Juan's mess, and I think that Holland are particularly good at making messes really messy, particularly if that mess is made by a defender giving the ball away in his own half, being out of position, or just giving away free kicks with ridiculous handballs and bad challenges. Watch for Brazil's number 4 to give Holland their first real chance on goal.

4. Holland's defence are great at shutting down individuals. If you think about most of Brazil's goals so far, they have come from great individual efforts by either Fabiano or Robinho, with the exception of Elano's goal and his assist in a goal Fabiano scored, but those don't count because Elano is done, as we know.

This is important because Holland's defence is characterized by great pressure on the ball and a stalwart desire to keep people out of the penalty area. Of course that leaves them open to balls over the top and coming in from out wide, but you get the point. What I'm saying is that Holland's defence is structured around preventing goals from being scored the way Brazil likes to score goals.

5. Robin Van Persie wants to prove himself. Frankly, I'm getting a little tired of Van Persie. He's kind of a little brat and he really doesn't seem to be particularly good at finishing his chances. Right now he has one goal, and he was supposed to be a front runner to win the Golden Boot. Other Golden Boot contenders like Luis Fabiano (3) David Villa (4) and Gonzalo Higuian (4) are clearly really far ahead of him. But I think Van Persie is pissed, I think he's going to come into this game with the clear intention of staying in this game for the duration, and keeping Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, a 23 year old phenom from AC Milan that I am quite a fan of, on the bench. Van Persie knows that he's got a youngster with the same goal tally as him breathing down his neck, and he also knows that his name is nowhere near as fun to say as "Class-Yan-Hoont-a-lar."

These are my keys to a Dutch victory that I think is going to happen. How full of crap am I? Comment!